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美版知乎:哪个发展中国家将成为下一个发达国家

What developing country will become the next developed nation?

哪个发展中国家将成为下一个发达国家?

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Quora读者的评论:

Darrell Francis, Economics BA, International Administration MA

This largely depends on how you define "developed". There are many countries in Eastern Europe which teeter on the edge of this definition. They have all the infrastructure from the Communist-era and many are now members of the EU, but incomes are much lower and they still receive development aid and have many social problems. Often, development is uneven. While Bratislava might be a beautiful, modern city, the rest of Slovakia is substantially poorer.

I attempted to make an objective measure using data from the United Nations Statistics Division, but I found that most definitions I used were surprisingly strict. I started by defining which countries were considered developed in 1970 and finding their aggregate GDP per capita each year since then. I then defined a developed country as one with a GDP per capita that was 50% or more than the aggregate of the predefined developed countries (excluding oil-dependent countries).

Using this definition, the only countries to become "developed" since 1970 were Cyprus, Portugal, Singapore, Slovenia, and South Korea  At this rate, we might only see 2 or 3 countries join their ranks in the near future. Of the 8 countries closest to reaching the 50% barrier, all are in the EU (Malta, Czech Republic, Estonia, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Croatia, and Lithuania). Chile is about the only other country in the running, but it would have to match South Korea's record growth to break the 50% barrier in the next 20 years. If we lower the barrier to 40%, Latvia, Mexico, and Turkey have a fair chance.

这在很大程度上取决于您如何定义“发达国家”。东欧有许多国家在这一定义的边缘摇摇欲坠。许多国家目前是欧盟成员国,但收入要低得多,仍然接受发展援助,存在许多社会问题。发展常常很不均衡。尽管伯拉第斯拉瓦可能是座美丽的现代化城市,但斯洛伐克的其他地区却穷得多。

我想用联合国统计司的数据来进行客观的衡量,但我发现我使用的大多数条件都非常严苛。我首先选出了1970年被视为发达国家的一批国家,并计算了自那以后每年的人均国内生产总值。然后,我将发达国家定义为人均GDP超过预先确定的发达国家(不包括依赖石油经济的国家)总和50%或以上的国家。

按照这个定义,自1970年以来,只有塞浦路斯、葡萄牙、新加坡、斯洛文尼亚和韩国成为“发达国家”。按照这个速度,在不久的将来,我们可能只会看到两三个国家加入这个行列。8个接近50%门槛的国家都在欧盟(马耳他、捷克共和国、爱沙尼亚、斯洛伐克、匈牙利、波兰、克罗地亚和立陶宛)。智利大概是唯一一个备选国家,但要想在未来20年突破50%的门槛,它必须赶上韩国创纪录的增长速度。如果我们把这个门槛降低到40%,拉脱维亚、墨西哥和土耳其尚有机会。

 

Randy McDonald, B.A. English Literature & Anthropology, Queen's University at Kingston

Looking at the World Bank’s list of high-income economies, what becomes apparent is that a few unfortunate countries have dropped out of this category on account of their economic woes. Croatia, for instance, dropped out of this category in 2015 owing to lagging economic growth bringing it below the minimum threshold, while Russia’s brief tenure from 2012–2014 was ended by—among other things—the falling price of oil and the effect of sanctions. Argentina and Venezuela did briefly rank as high-income economies in 2014, but fell out of this category subsequently, Venezuela much more catastrophically than Argentina.

If we are to assume that “developing country” is synonymous with “Third World country”, i.e. a country that was part of neither the Western nor the Soviet blocs in the Cold War, two strong candidates are Argentina and Venezuela. Although currently relatively poor by the standards of high-income economies, these countries have traditionally been quite wealthy by world standards and even, before the 1970s, ranked reasonably highly on international income rankings. Of these two countries, I would say that Argentina, with the more diversified economy and stabler political system, is more likely to become a developed country than a Venezuela undergoing a general meltdown. Chile, which has made consistent progress since the end of the Pinochet dictatorship, is another possibility.

译文来源:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/47397.html  译者:Joyceliu

看看世界银行的高收入经济体名单,显而易见的是,一些不幸的国家由于经济困境而退出了这一类别。例如,由于经济增长滞后,克罗地亚在2015年退出了发达国家之列,而俄罗斯自2012年到2014年后又陷于沉寂,原因之一是油价下跌和制裁的影响。2014年,阿根廷和委内瑞拉曾短暂跻身高收入经济体之列,但随后就被挤出了阵营,委内瑞拉的遭遇比阿根廷更具灾难性。

如果我们假定“发展中国家”是“第三世界国家”的同义词,即在冷战中既不属于西方集团也不属于苏联集团的国家,那么两个强有力的候选国是阿根廷和委内瑞拉。虽然按照高收入经济体的标准来看,这些国家目前相对贫穷,但按照世界标准来看,它们传统上相当富有,甚至在上世纪70年代以前,它们在国际收入排行榜上的排名也相当高。我认为,在这两个国家中,阿根廷的经济更加多样化,政治制度更加稳定,更有可能成为一个发达国家,而委内瑞拉正面临全面崩溃。智利也有可能,自皮诺切特读才统治结束以来该国一直在进步。

 

Gabriel De Luca

I don't know the only one next coutry that will become developed but I'm going to list some of my guesses by priority:

NOTE: I'm not saying that all countries will develop step by step all at the same time, it will just flow gradually, some countries from different steps will develop first or lag behind.

1) Potential countries to join the Eurozone: Hungary, Poland, maybe Romania...

2) EU enlargement: Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina... (I'm expecting some economic miracle like the "Balkan Tigers" like what happened in the Baltic).

3) The Tiger Cub Economies: Malaysia, The Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand (Maybe Brunei and Vietnam in the future)

4) The Gulf Countries (Highly speculative, debatable): UAE, Quatar, Bahrain. Maybe Kwait, Saudi Arabia and Oman, (only if those countries diversify their economies in time)

5) The Pacific Pumas (debatable): Chile, Mexico and Colombia. (It is quite improbable but Peru can be added to the team)

5.1) Futher EU enlargement? Maybe?: Ukraine and Turkey(?).

5.2) Argentina maybe?

6) BRICS: China, Brasil, India, Russia and maybe South Africa. These countries are not higher in this priority list because they (not counting S. Africa) have a HUGE population and a HUGE territory, it's a bit hard to develop fast with those conditions.

7) The debatable countries: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt and Nigeria.

8) The even more debatable countries: Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Iraq(?).

我不知道下一个发达国家会是谁,但我将按优先顺序列出我的一些猜测:

注:我并不是说所有的国家都会在同一时间一步一步地发展,而是会循序渐进地发展,有些国家走在前面,有些国家走在后面。

1)可能加入欧元区的国家:匈牙利、波兰,或许还有罗马尼亚……

2)欧盟扩大:马其顿、波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那……(我期待出现像波罗的海“巴尔干四小龙”那样的经济奇迹)。

3)亚洲四小虎:马来西亚、菲律宾、印度尼西亚和泰国(未来可能是文莱和越南)

4)海湾国家(高度投机,有争议):阿联酋,卡塔尔,巴林。或许是科威特、沙特阿拉伯和阿曼(除非这些国家及时实现经济多元化)

5)太平洋美洲狮(有争议):智利、墨西哥和哥伦比亚。(虽然可能性很低,但秘鲁也可以算作一个)

5.1)欧盟进一步扩大?也许?:乌克兰和土耳其(?)

5.2)也许还有阿根廷?

金砖四国:中国、巴西、印度、俄罗斯,或许还有南非。这些国家的排名并不靠前,因为他们(不包括南非)拥有庞大的人口和领土,很难快速发展。

7)争议国家:孟加拉国、巴基斯坦、伊朗、埃及和尼日利亚。

8)争议更大的国家:斯里兰卡、缅甸、哈萨克斯坦、阿尔及利亚和伊拉克(?)

 

Martin Devasia, studied at St Augustine's College

Most answers here say that countries like UAE, Qatar and Bahrain and even Kuwait are still developing countries, but given that the most important metrics for development are HDI and GDP per capita (GDP distributed evenly among the Population) we can see that all the above mentioned countries score really high on these metrics, for example how can Qatar still be a developing country when it is the world’s richest country? UAE is also one of the most richest countries in the world as well as Kuwait, so how can these countries be developing? in addition to that one characteristic all developed countries share is the fact that they have low growth rates, a typical developed country grows at 1–2% annually, all the above mentioned countries grow around the same rate, now here are the countries I believe will become developed in the next 20 years:

Malaysia (HDI: 0.779 GDP per capita: $10,538.06)

Oman (HDI: 0.793 GDP per capita: $21,929.01)

Turkey (HDI: 0.761 GDP per capita: $10,971.66)

Sri Lanka (HDI: 0.757 GDP per capita: $3,279.89)

Poland (HDI: 0.855 GDP per capita: $13,647.96)

Saudi Arabia (HDI: 0.782 GDP per capita: $25,961.81)

If you have any suggestions I can update the list.

大多数答案提到了阿联酋、卡塔尔和巴林甚至科威特这些国家仍然是发展中国家,但是考虑到发展的最重要的指标是人类发展指数(HDI)和人均国内生产总值(人均GDP),我们可以看到,所有上述国家在这些指标上的得分很高,例如卡塔尔是世界上最富有的国家,怎么还只是发展中国家?阿联酋和科威特一样也是世界上最富有的国家之一,那么这些国家怎么会是发展中国家呢?除此之外所有发达国家的一个共同特征是,他们的增长率较低,典型发达国家每年增长1 - 2%,所有上述国家的增长速度都相同,我相信以下国家将在未来20年成为发达国家:

马来西亚(HDI: 0.779人均GDP: 10,538.06美元)

阿曼(HDI: 0.793人均GDP: 21,929.01美元)

土耳其(HDI: 0.761人均GDP: 10,971.66美元)

斯里兰卡(HDI: 0.757人均GDP: 3,279.89美元)

波兰(HDI: 0.855人均GDP: 13,647.96美元)

沙特阿拉伯(HDI: 0.782:人均GDP: 25961.81美元)

 

Shahrul Nizam, Bachelor Degree Management, University of Selangor (2005)

Since gaining independence in 1957, Malaysia has successfully diversified its economy from one that was initially agriculture and commodity-based, to one that now plays host to robust manufacturing and services sectors, that have propelled it to become a leading exporter of electrical appliances, electronic parts and components.

Malaysia is one of the most open economies in the world, with a trade to GDP ratio averaging over 130 percent since 2010. Openness to trade and investment have been instrumental in employment creation and income growth, with about 40 percent of jobs in Malaysia linked to export activities. After the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998, Malaysia’s economy has been on an upward trajectory, averaging growth of 5.4 percent since 2010, and is expected to achieve its transition from an upper middle-income economy to a high-income economy by 2024.

自1957年获得独立以来,马来西亚已成功实现了经济多元化,从最初以农业和大宗商品为基础的经济,转变为如今拥有强劲制造业和服务业的经济。制造业和服务业助力马来西亚成为电器、电子零部件的主要出口国。

马来西亚是世界上最开放的经济体之一,自2010年以来,贸易占GDP的比例平均超过13%。对贸易和投资的开放在创造就业和收入增长方面发挥了重要作用,马来西亚约40%的就业与出口活动有关。1997-1998年亚洲金融危机后,马来西亚经济一直处于上升轨道,2010年以来平均增长5.4%,预计到2024年将实现从中上收入经济体向高收入经济体的转型。

 

Mehran Janghorbani, Use economic theories in my work almost daily

Very interesting question with a really difficult answer, basically three factors are required for economic growth (Todaro, 1994):

1) capital accumulation

2) workforce growth

3) technological advances

I suggest that you do an exercise and post the results here for us all, create an excel sheet and multiply the amount of their capital account balance x their rate of population growth x the amount of money they spend in R&D

The countries with the highest numbers should be the ones to watch out for with a good degree of confidence. Remember to adjust your numbers for PPP

Hope this helps

N.B: I wrote this in a hurry and could not consult the literature, if anyone knows of better metrics to represent the three factors or if someone wants to propose a more complicated model, I would be very happy if you could comment and correct me.

这是一个非常有趣的问题,很难回答,基本上经济增长需要三个因素(Todaro, 1994):

1)资本积累

2)劳动力增长

3)技术的进步

我建议你做一个练习,把结果贴在这里,然后创建一个excel表格,把他们的资本账户余额乘以他们的人口增长率乘,再乘以他们在研发上的投入

得数最高的国家应该是那些有足够信心的国家。记住要根据购买力平价调整你的数字

希望这个回答能有点帮助。

我写得很匆忙,没有查阅文献,如果有人知道有更好的指标能取代这三个因素,或者有人能提出一个更复杂的模型,欢迎评论指教,我会乐意接受。

 

Ben Zupnick, Political and Development Economist, Blogger

Mr. Sims answer is a pretty solid list, it really depends on your definition of "developed". Are you talking about macroeconomics, or a more human centered approach (including political freedoms / human rights, no extreme poverty, relatively egalitarian gains, etc; the much more difficult goal to attain but much more important in terms of "sustainable" gained). This more holistic approach to development is sometimes known as "modernization".

The NYT published an article today highlighting Africa's development prospects / pitfalls. On one hand, there have been gains in FDI, personal consumption, and extreme poverty alleviation, important aspects of development. On the other hand, these countries remain extremely unequal and lack many infrastructures most people would associate with development (particularly in rural areas). They also suffer from extreme corruption, insecurity / armed conflict, and rely too heavily on extractive industries (not a recipe for sustainable development).  

I would add Nigeria to the list as well. I also think the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) must all be considered "developing", despite any social problems present in those countries.

Sims先生的答案是一个相当可靠的列表,这真的取决于你对“发达国家”的定义。你是在谈论宏观经济学,还是更加以人为本(包括政治自由/人全、没有极端贫困、相对平等的收入等?)。这种更全面的发展途径有时被称为“现代化”。

《纽约时报》今天发表了一篇文章,强调非洲的发展前景/陷阱。一方面,在外国直接投资、个人消费和极端扶贫等发展的重要方面取得了进展。另一方面,这些国家仍然极不平等,缺乏普罗大众能使用的基础设施(尤其是农村地区)。他们还遭受极端腐败、不安全/武装冲突带来的苦难,严重依赖采掘业(并非可持续发展的良方)。

我还要把尼日利亚也列入这个名单。我还认为,金砖四国(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国、南非)都必须被视为“发展中国家”,尽管这些国家存在这样那样的社会问题。

 

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